Does the dollar reach less than 15,000 tomans?
According to an economic analyst, if all the country’s foreign exchange resources are injected into the foreign exchange market, the dollar will reach less than 15,000 tomans, but in the most optimistic case, this price can be maintained for a maximum of two to three months and then jump.
In an interview with ISNA, Meysam Hashemkhani stated: “According to the theory of purchasing power, the exchange rate of foreign currencies against our country’s currency compares the record of controlling inflation in Iran with other countries.” In other words, countries that have a more successful track record in controlling inflation have more value and power than the rial; In the last 10 years, the price of the dollar against the rial has increased 22 times, the price of the UAE dirham against the rial has increased 18 times, the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the rial has increased 15 times and the exchange rate of the Afghan currency has increased 13 times.
What about the equilibrium and stable price of the dollar? He explained: In my opinion, the dollar price that can bring calm and stability to the foreign exchange market is about 21,000 Tomans in March this year and about 28,000 Tomans in March next year. Naturally, if this is the equilibrium price, if the dollar rises above this range, it is expected to fall in the future. Also, if the price of the dollar falls much lower than the limited 21,000 tomans, it is expected that the price of the dollar will jump in the future.
He added: “The reason why the equilibrium price of the dollar for next year is higher than this year, is the high inflation of our country compared to the average inflation in the world and that the rial has a much lower exchange rate compared to the world currencies.”
This economic analyst in response to the extent to which the dollar can fall in price? He said: My answer to the question of whether the dollar can reach below 12,000 tomans is yes, and this can only be done by injecting all foreign exchange resources into the foreign exchange market; But the problem here is that price reductions do not last. If the dollar reaches less than 15,000 tomans in any case, in the most optimistic case, this price can be maintained for a maximum of two to three months, after which it will jump to the equilibrium price mentioned above.
Hashem Khani, emphasizing that the rise of the dollar from the equilibrium price is also short-lived, continued: “Over the past 30 years, fluctuations and jumps in the dollar in Iran have intensified, because many countries now have the technology and policy to achieve inflation below 3% And as the number of these countries increases, currency and dollar jumps and crises intensify in Iran.